1-on-1: The National League

Posted by Dave at Wednesday, March 25, 2009 12:10 AM
Categories: National sports scene,Wednesday 1-on-1

 
In hopes of lending a national perspective to the site, each week Dave will be joined by
National Correspondent Donovan Burba to debate a relevant issue from within the world of sports.
Burba formerly worked at the Concord Monitor, so he's got a sense of what makes us
New Englanders tick — but now that he's back in his native Chicago, his view of the sports world
can sometime seem as though it's coming through Harry Caray's big, thick glasses.

THIS WEEK'S TOPIC
A preview and predictions for the National League.
(With the American League to come tomorrow, in a special, two-part 1-on-1.)


The format's a little different for this week of the 1-on-1. For this type of topic, doing it in the usual fashion was lasting just a little too long — That's what she said. — so we've opted for something a little quicker and easier to follow. The downside is that I can't remind Donovan that Miguel Cabrera is fat and lazy, fight him on the value of VORP, or ask him to explain his desire for a resurgence in Kansas City. But if you'd like an answer to those issues, or anything else, just drop us a comment and I'm sure he'll be glad to answer. It may not make sense (he's from the midwest), but I'm sure he'll try his best. Maybe we'll even give him a "participant" ribbon.


DONOVAN
NL EAST
DAVE
Phillies, Mets*, Braves, Marlins, Nationals
Mets, Phillies*, Marlins, Braves, Nationals
I agree that once again, the NL East is the Mets' to lose. And I think that, once again, they'll lose it. I'm not sold on Johan Santana's health, and I also wonder how much Carlos Delgado has left in the tank. The Phillies have more guys that can do more, if that makes sense, even though Reyes and Wright are the best duo in the division, if not baseball. I'm also still trying to figure out why the Metropolitans went out and got two closers this offseason. The Braves and Marlins are going to be fun to watch, with a lot of talent between them. The Nationals also will be fielding a team.
If there was any single thing holding back the Mets these last few years it was the bullpen – and after addressing that weakness this offseason, the division is again New York ’s to lose. Philly will put up a fight, as they always do, but even with an AL-style lineup behind it I’m not ready to put my trust in a rotation including Old Man Moyer, the temperamental elbow of Cole Hamels, and plain ol' mental of Brett Myers. Both Florida and Atlanta have the ability to finish at or above .500, while Washington will suck once more, but ultimately the Mets’ new Citi Field will be stimulated – pun intended! – come October.


DONOVAN
NL CENTRAL
DAVE
Cubs, Cards, 'Stros, Brewers, Reds, Pirates
Cubs, Cards, Reds, Brewers, 'Stros, Pirates
It's nice to be able to pick the Cubs as the clear favorites and have that actually be an unbiased opinion. Front to back, they're the best team in baseball (easy to say before Opening Day, but still). Mark DeRosa will be sorely missed, but Milton Bradley, crazy or not, is a great pick-up, and the rotation is the tops in the NL even before the inevitable Jake Peavy trade. The Brewers lost their two best pitchers, meaning they're going to waste that great Hardy-Braun-Fielder-Hart middle of the order. I'm not sure why the Reds are everyone's chic pick; Votto and Phillips are solid, Bruce fell off big-time last year, and their staff is Edinson Volquez and close your eyes. Houston's got the bats to compete. The Pirates have a great ballpark.
No team in this division has the combination of pitching and hitting that the Cubs do, which I’m sure starts things stirring for you. It’s also hard to see any team outside of Chicago being better than mediocre, so it could be any of four clubs waiting to pounce if the blue and white give them an opening. The Cards lack pitching, the Reds are a year too young (look out, Chicago, in 2010), the Astros are uninspiring, and although the Brewers have a tremendous core of young hitters they won't be able survive losing their two best pitchers from last season. So, barring a brutal, Donovan-denounces-baseball-as-a-whole type of collapse, this is the Cubs division. No doubt about it.


DONOVAN
NL WEST
DAVE
D'backs, Dodgers, Giants, Rockies, Padres
D'backs, Giants, Dodgers, Padres, Rockies
What a brutal division. If all the youngsters on the D-Backs come along, they could win 95 games, and their rotation alone makes them the favorite. The Dodgers have a lot of solid bats, but Billingsley and Kershaw are too big of question marks at the top of the rotation. I love the Giants lineup—the stat Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) should be replaced with VOGPP (Value over Giants Position Player). They even have the guy with the most average name in baseball: Fred Lewis. But hey, Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain will keep them in it. I have nothing to say about the Rockies and Padres, other than that I hope the Padres trade Peavy to the Cubs.
I really wanted to go with the Giants here, because — as bad as their lineup is — they've got the best 1-to-11 pitching staff in the division. I just couldn't do it. With two aces, and two more solid veterans behind them, the Diamondbacks' starting rotation is too good to pick against. Their bullpen is a question, but if the youthful core of Chris Young, Justin Upton, Conor Jackson and Stephen Drew all begin to emerge this year, they'll be tough to beat. The Dodgers will be in the mix most of the season, too, but despite the way Manny saved them last summer, their pattern of inconsistency is too long to ignore.


DONOVAN
NL MVP
DAVE
David Wright, Mets
David Wright, Mets
He's the obvious choice, and yet again we agree. Hanley Ramirez is a better player, but stuck on a lousy team. No one on the Cubs or D-Backs jumps out as a clear contender—although, don't laugh, Soriano could be that guy if Lou really does move him down in the lineup. I was very close to putting Manny's name up there, but with the honeymoon over it's tough to predict how he'll do over a full season.
While hitting over .300 and piling up at least 100 RBI in each of his first four full seasons, he's received MVP votes every year of his career — and this year he receives more of those votes than anybody else. He'll stay steady with his high level of production, and with the Mets going to the playoffs he'll get enough credit to edge the Ramirez Triplets — Hanley, Aramis and Manny, in that order — to win the award for the first time. It won't be his last.


DONOVAN
NL
CY
DAVE
Tim Lincecum, Giants
Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
Somehow virtually all the great pitchers in the NL ended up out west. Webb's a safe pick, so's Dan Haren, but I like the San Francisco righty to repeat. As I said, I don't trust Johan's elbow. I can see Peavy putting together a Sabathia-like post-trade deadline two months for another team (guess who?) to put his name in the mix too, but he ain't winning it in San Diego.
Despite allowing at least six earned runs in four different starts last season, Webb was good enough the rest of the year to finish with an adjusted ERA of 139 and rank second in the Cy voting. Those clunkers were the aberration, and won't happen this year, so the Arizona ace will be named the NL's best for the second time in four years — with two second-place finishes in between. I'd call him underrated, but with a resume like that, the people who matter have taken notice.


DONOVAN
NL ROY
DAVE
Cameron Maybin, Marlins
Cameron Maybin, Marlins
Tough category since so many top young players are not eligible thanks to previous stints. With the exception of last year, when I predicted Geo Soto would take home the hardware, no one ever accurately predicts the rookie of the year anyway, so I'll go with the guy with the most buzz. Plays on a lousy team, so he'll get his chances.
If his .298 average over three minor league seasons can translate to the bigs, and he finds the power inherent in a frame of 6-4, 205, Maybin will be a 20-20 threat sooner than later. Being in Florida he'll be allowed to play, too, and they obviously think highly enough of him that he was among the bounty the Marlins fetched for Miguel Cabrera. He's no Geovany Soto, I'm sure, but he'll be pretty good.


DONOVAN
NL DUD
DAVE
Johan Santana, Mets
Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals
Mr. Santana, Dr. Andrews.

Dr. Andrews, Mr. Santana.
Let's see: A guy in his fourth organization, who'd only played more than 47 ML games in a season, and never had more than 303 at-bats, suddenly turns 30 and lights up the league for 37 HRs and 113 RBI while hitting .299. What's he do at 31? Comes back to Earth. Hurriedly.
Identifying the player most likely to be a disappointment this season.


DONOVAN
NL STUD
DAVE
Carlos Marmol, Cubs
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
114 Ks in 87 innings last year. With Kerry Wood gone, Marmol's going to get virtually all the save opportunities for a team that, you may have guessed by now, I think is going to win a lot of games. With a plus fastball and a knee-buckling slider, he'll overcome occasional control problems.
He was pretty average in 21 starts last year — actually, he WAS average, with an adjusted ERA of 100 — but that experience will expedite the process of living up to the enormous potential that made him the seventh overall pick in 2006. If being 20 doesn't prohibit him from harnessing his control, this lefty will be very good very soon.
The player most likely to have a breakthrough season.


DONOVAN
NL CHAMP
DAVE
Cubs over Mets, 3-1
Diamondbacks over Phillies, 3-2
Cubs over Diamondbacks, 4-2
Cubs over Phillies, 3-2
Diamondbacks over Mets, 3-2
Cubs over Diamondbacks, 4-2
Somehow we took different routes to the same destination; the only difference is, I avoided the lazy Steve Bartman jokes. This prediction does give me pause, as this is essentially the same Cubs team that fizzled in the divisional round last year, and somehow I don't think the presence of Aaron Miles would have changed that. As I said before, on paper the Cubs are the best team in baseball, and until they start playing the games that's all we have to go on.
Trust me, this pick does not come without difficulty. I'd much rather dream up a destructively agonizing and heart-wrenching way for the Cubs to blow the deciding playoff game, and then watch you squirm. (Fan touches catchable foul ball, anyone?) But I can't. They're the most talented team in the league, top to bottom, and will only get better when they add Jake Peavy at midseason. Steve Bartman, you can come back to society now.


 del.icio.us  Stumbleupon  Technorati  Digg 

 
Trackbacks
Trackback specific URL for this entry
  • No trackbacks exist for this entry.
Comments
Display comments as (Linear | Threaded)

Leave a comment

 Enter the above security code (required)

 Name

 Email (will not be published)

 Website

Your comment is 0 characters limited to 3000 characters.