1-on-1: American League

Posted by Dave at Thursday, March 26, 2009 12:01 AM
Categories: National sports scene,Weekend countdown

 
In hopes of lending a national perspective to the site, each week Dave will be joined by
National Correspondent Donovan Burba to debate a relevant issue from within the world of sports.
Burba formerly worked at the Concord Monitor, so he's got a sense of what makes us
New Englanders tick — but now that he's back in his native Chicago, his view of the sports world
can sometime seem as though it's coming through Harry Caray's big, thick glasses.

THIS WEEK'S TOPIC
A preview and predictions for the American League.
(The National League appeared yesterday, in a special, two-part 1-on-1.)


If you missed yesterday's analysis, or would like to revisit its incredible wisdom once more, click here.

DONOVAN
AL EAST
DAVE
Yankees, Rays*, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles
Red Sox, Yankees*, Rays, Blue Jays, Orioles
Okay, okay, I know I'm going to get grief for putting the Red Sox in third. And you know what? I wouldn't be surprised if Boston won the East. If I knew for sure that Josh Beckett was going to return to his 2007 level, for example, I might put the Crimson Hose on top. But there's too many question marks in that rotation. Beckett needs to rebound big time, Dice-K walks too many (don't be fooled by his 18 wins), and I like Tim Wakefield, but the end of line is very near for the aging junkballer. Ortiz needs to show he's not on the downside of his career, ditto Lowell, Ellsbury has to do what he did in the first half last year all season ... there's just too many question marks, and I don't see it happening. I have no love for the Yankees, but they should be able to beat teams into submission on days when Sabathia and Wang aren't on the mound. The Rays are due for an inevitable slippage, but they'll be fun to watch, and the balance of power may actually be shifting in the East. Even the Jays and Orioles have some fun guys; don't hold your breath for ESPN to give Baltimore's Adam Jones even 5% of the attention it gives football's clown with the same name, but they guy is going to be good. So, Sox third, unless they win it, and then I'll claim I knew it all along. Obviously whoever finishes second gets the wild card, and we could see a 90-win team finish third.
There's no doubt the Yankees have improved themselves. Mark Teixeira and CC Sabathia are going to be great players in New York for a long time, and they'll do enough this year — combined with baseball's version of the Super Bowl losers' curse catching up with Tampa — to vault the Yanks over the Rays. (Imagine saying that at this time last year.) But based on the top of their starting rotation, a dramatically improved bullpen, and an on-base-machice of a lineup, the Red Sox are the best team in this division. I've thought that for months, wrote about it, and even broke down all three teams position by position. I'm trying to be objective here, and I acknowledge there are a whole lot of "ifs", but when I look at it straight down the middle I still say the division goes through Boston. That's not an absolute, of course, given the capabilities of every team in it (except the Orioles). But I'm pretty confident in the local nine that Theo Epstein has built for this season. And beyond.


DONOVAN
AL CENTRAL
DAVE
Tigers, White Sox, Twins, Indians, Royals
Indians, Twins, Tigers, White Sox, Royals
I simply can't believe that a team with as much talent as the Tigers won't win a division as mediocre as this one, and now that the focus is off them, this might be the year. Don't count out the White Sox, as much as I hate to say it; why the South Siders didn't get more attention for winning three games against three different teams on the last three days of the year to win the division last year is beyond me. It's almost as if the national sports media has a regional bias. The Indians are tempting, but reports out of camp are that Cliff Lee is pitching like the Cliff Lee of old, and that's bad news.
It would honestly not surprise me to see any team other than the Royals win this division, but I'm going with the Tribe. I like their moves of adding Mark DeRosa and Kerry Wood (thanks Chicago!), and they've still basically got the everyday core that was within a win of the World Series in 2007. Cliff Lee won't repeat last year, and Minnesota probably has the better rotation, but the Twins, White Sox and Tigers are all too incomplete to trust with the expectation of winning the division. Any could pull it off, but in my opinion the smart money would have to go on Cleveland.


DONOVAN
AL WEST
DAVE
Angels, Athletics, Rangers, Mariners
Athletics, Angels, Rangers, Mariners
I'm pretty sure losing a closer has never actually hurt a team, and the Angels have by far the most talent in the West. I disagree heartily with Dave's assesment of Matt Holliday; I don't think he's going to be the next Andruw Jones, he's also not going to take the A's back to the promised land.
Moneyball is back, baby. I love what Billy Beane did this offseason — I'm not nearly as scared of Matt Holliday as most people — and think he's positioned his team to make a run at LA, signing a bunch of incented veterans to fill in around a young pitching staff. I liked the Angels' signing of Bobby Abreu, but that's a team that needs an infusion — and didn't get it this winter. Each of the other two clubs has some talent, but its gaping holes will render each a nonfactor.


DONOVAN
AL MVP
DAVE
Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
Grady Sizemore, Indians
Speaking of guys who feel like they've been around forever but are only 26. Miggy's most-similar for ages 21-24: Hank Aaron. Age 25 is Ken Griffey Jr., and those of us who remember the 25-year-old Junior know that it doesn't get much better than that. The guy can flat-out hit, and he's hitting that age when kids start hitting like men. That's bad news for AL pitching.
He's been around for so long now it's somewhat surprising that he's still just 26, and only now is he entering his prime. He hit 33 homers last year, stole 38 bases, has scored 100 runs in each of his four seasons and plays outstanding defense. He'll bring up last year's .268 average to something nearer his .290 of 2006, and with Cleveland bound for the postseason he'll be feated as handsomely as the ladies believe he looks.


DONOVAN
AL
CY
DAVE
Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
Josh Beckett, Red Sox
This may not happen, but if Lincecum can win it playing for the abysmal Giants, Halladay deserves to win more than one Cy Young in his career. Last year was classic Doc: 246 IP, 9 CG, 206 Ks against 39 walks, a 2.78 ERA, and a seat on the couch for the postseason. The man deserves better.
Based on his on-again, off-again career pattern, this should be a stellar season for Beckett — and if he's healthy, I expect it will be his best in Boston. He's got two years left on his deal, is nearing a payday, and if he's not above average this year (for the third time in four years with the Sox), it'd be hard to envision any AL team paying him big bucks in free agency. He knows that, and a motivated Beckett is often an unhittable Beckett. A cussing Beckett, too, probably.


DONOVAN
AL ROY
DAVE
David Price, Rays
Matt Wieters, Orioles
I'm tempted to agree with DD on Wieters, but Price has all the makings of an ace. I don't see him living up to the astronomical projections everyone has for him in his first year, but he'll be solid enough, and the hype will help come voting season.
The chic pick is Tampa's postseason hero, David Price, but I'll take the reigning minor leaguer of the year. He hit .355 in the minors last year, with 27 HRs and 91 RBI in just 437 at-bats. I'm not suggesting he'll come near those numbers in his first season with the big club, and Baltimore's acquisition of David Spade — err, Greg Zaun — could put a kink into Wieters' candidacy. But if he gets 450 ABs this year, this award is his to lose.


DONOVAN
AL DUD
DAVE
Josh Hamilton, Rangers
Josh Hamilton, Rangers
Easiest pick on the board.
Was he merely tired after putting on a show, and receiving (ahem) hugs from the smitten staff at ESPN, during the home-run derby? Or was Hamilton's second half something to worry about? He hit just 11 HRs and had only 35 RBI after the all-star break, and he wasn't anything special on the road (.263, 13, 55 vs. .345, 19, 75) all year. Those are the sorts of things that catch up to a guy his second time through the American League.
Identifying the player most likely to be a disappointment this season.


DONOVAN
AL STUD
DAVE
Alex Gordon, Royals
Edwin Jackson, Tigers
Obviously the expectations for Gordon were premature, but he's cut down on his strikeouts, upped his walks, and with 1,000 ABs under his belt he's no longer the pie-eyed youngster with the hopes of a franchise—yes, even the Royals weigh something—on his shoulders. Here's hoping he and Billy Butler, another breakout candidate, bring some excitment back to Kansas City.
My decision was between he and Mariners' 2B Jose Lopez (who is going to be a stud this year, too), but I opted for Jackson because of a combination of factors. He's now in a pitchers' park, where his wealth of natural ability should be able to thrive. He's shown flashes in the past, but I think this is the year he puts it all together, and the Tigers end up having received a steal in exchange for Matt Joyce.
The player most likely to have a breakthrough season.


DONOVAN
AL CHAMP
DAVE
Yankees over Tigers, 3-2
Angels over Rays, 3-1
Yankees over Angels, 4-3
Red Sox over Athletics, 3-1
Indians over Yankees, 3-2
Red Sox over Indians, 4-2
First of all, I think it's hilarious that you think we'd have a friendship after a Cubs-Red Sox World Series. Either the Sox would win and I'd never speak to you again, or the Cubs would win and I'd be so obnoxious about it that you'd never want me to speak to you again. But it'd be certainly fitting if the Cubs ended their century+ of futility against baseball's most successful franchise, so I'll go Cubs over Yankees in 5.
I so like the Red Sox pitching staff that if they get in the playoffs, I like their chances against anybody. Plus, it's fun to envision what would surely be the apocalyptic event of our friendship.

That week's 1-on-1 would be filled with bloodshed, I am quite certain. But it would end in peaceful resignation, signaled by a whimper 101 years in the making: Sox over Cubs in 7.


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