1-on-1: What's Your Fantasy?

Posted by Dave at Wednesday, March 11, 2009 11:00 PM
Categories: National sports scene,Wednesday 1-on-1

 
In hopes of lending a national perspective to the site, each week Dave will be joined by
National Correspondent Donovan Burba to debate a relevant issue from within the world of sports.
Burba formerly worked at the Concord Monitor, so he's got a sense of what makes us
New Englanders tick — but now that he's back in his native Chicago, his view of the sports world
can sometime seem as though it's coming through Harry Caray's big, thick glasses.

THIS WEEK'S TOPIC
It's a two-man fantasy baseball draft. You've got to pick a team with
one player for each position, an extra infielder, extra outfielder, utility spot,
five starting pitchers, three relievers and a six-man bench — along the way
revealing what you think of the value for certain players, who you'd take
first at certain positions, when you'd reach, and which big names you'd avoid.


Dave: ok, so the format is set, and you’ve won the first pick. you’re on the clock.
Donovan: well, I had this guy last year, and I hate to have guys 2 years in a row, but I've got to go with Hanley Ramirez
Donovan: I prefer him to Reyes for whatever reason
Dave: a wise choice ... the coffee mustn't have kicked in yet, so you're not your illogical self yet
Donovan: haha
Donovan: it was between him and Soto
Dave: figured
Dave: well, with the no. 2 pick overall i think you're looking for the surest thing on the board, so we'll play it safe if not sexy: Big Al Pujols
Donovan: that's a good pick
Donovan: he's like the peyton manning of fantasy baseball; you might be tempted by some sexy running back or shortstop, but you know what you're getting with those guys every year
Dave: exactly; if i don't get .300, 30 and 110 i'll be stunned
Donovan: given that it's a two-team league, I think I'll go ahead and fill my utility spot with Jose Reyes
Donovan: tough to pass on a 20/60 guy
Dave: you really think he's the third-best fantasy player? i don't.
Dave: in fact, i think he's the second-best fantasy player on his own team, and that's why i'm going with ... David Wright
Donovan: if I had the third pick in a 10 or 12-team league and Hanley and Albert were gone, I'd take Reyes
Dave: I'd take Wright; another sure thing, so I'm glad he slipped
Donovan: no argument there, although I think there's value at 3B later in the draft
Dave: we shall see...
Donovan: with two shortstops I need some power, so I'm going with Ryan Braun for my third pick
Dave: good choice; he was on my short list
Donovan: averaging 44 homers per 162 games, gets to face the reds and pirates 30 times a year
Dave: ...and the cubs
Donovan: well, yes, but I'll sit him those days to protect my average number
Dave: i've got my power situated for now, but we're not going to suffer too much for the sake of speed because we're going in this spot with Grady Sizemore
Dave: and, yes, my ballpark is going to be filled with women in pink tank tops with camera phones
Dave: wright and sizemore? chicks dig it.
Donovan: sort of exactly like Fenway now
Donovan: all you need is Ellsbury and you're set
Dave: hmmm... that may not be the last time you see that name in this chat...
Donovan: I suspected not
Donovan: with my next pick, I'm taking Chase Utley, in my opinion one of two top-tier keystone sackers
Dave: wow, disrespecting ian kinsler, huh?
Donovan: and no, the other one is not the face of the game
Dave: utley over kinsler or pedroia? clear-cut decision for you?
Donovan: yes
Donovan: based on history and the lineup he's in
Dave: i'm feeling pretty good about my offense, so i'll go now with a guy i just might take eighth overall no matter how many teams were in my league. he came in with the hype, has proven the real deal, and he's only going to be better than last year — when he won a cy young: Tim Lincecum
Dave: given that he looks like the silent kid from Little Miss Sunshine, i'm not sure he helps our sex-appeal marketing plan, but he sure can bring it
Donovan: wow, very early to be drafting a shoulder inury— I mean a starting pitcher
Donovan: his major rise in inning last year isn't a concern?
Dave: nah ... and he delivers in every category. in my opinion he's the clear-cut best pitcher on the board
Donovan: interesting
Donovan: I agree, if he stays healthy
Donovan: but that's a big if
Dave: if he's not healthy i'll just turn to the virtual lincecum that follows him around in those commercials
Dave: no biggie
Donovan: next up: Mark Teixeira
Donovan: nothing fancy, just a power-hitting first baseman
Dave: he doesn't even have power in his own home
Donovan: and as good as he's been, think how much better he'll be playing in the same clubhouse as Jeter
Dave: true ... it's worked so well for a-rod
Donovan: none of this would have happened if Jeter had moved to third
Donovan: or second, rather
Dave: amen
Dave: i'm a bit conflicted here, because i don't know to go with the fairly big risk but the huge reward, or the minimal risk and solid reward
Donovan: Manny or ...?
Dave: but, hey, let's roll the dice
Dave: no, not manny
Dave: my selection: BJ Upton
Donovan: wow
Dave: could easily be 30-30
Dave: could also hit like last year
Donovan: right. if you were going to draft those 2008 numbers, you could have taken Ellsbury and sold some pink hats
Dave: the playoff convinced me; i think that three weeks was his true emergence as a star
Dave: plus, i figured i'd leave my safer option for you
Dave: since he's your boy (hint, hint)
Donovan: did you take Mark Lemke in your 1992 fantasy draft based on his postseason performance?
Dave: that and my admiration for scrappy white second basemen
Dave: loved the Lemmer
Donovan: so that's where it all began
Donovan: I'm going to grab the guy who's the top SP on my board overall, Brandon Webb
Dave: excellent choice; i've got him in one of my keeper leagues, and am pretty happy about it
Dave: i can't even make fun of you for that one
Donovan: that is a great pick, then
Dave: now i'll go with the safer of my dilemma last time; i think this might be a reach if he's really going to hit third, because his rise in RBI won't offset the presumed loss of steals. but i think he's a solid choice here. i'm talking, of course, about Alfonso Soriano
Donovan: of course
Donovan: I think it's a solid pick, he'll get more RBIs as you said, and I bet he still steals 25-30
Dave: maybe — although i'd let d-lee and a-ram take their hacks with a guy on base
Donovan: and again, weak pitching division outside of Chicago
Dave: oh, right, that's why the cubs don't have any competition in the central
Donovan: if that was supposed to be a dig, it didn't work
Donovan: well I know he's your boy, but I think a guy that's going to be an MVP contender is one Manny Ramirez, so he's my next pick
Dave: i feel like a proud papa when you praise like that...
Donovan: Manny's going to have a monster year, no denying that
Donovan: playing in front of those fairweather Sox fans for years has prepared him for the fairweather Dodgers fans
Dave: speaking of MVPs, i'll take one. he's streaky, he's frustrating for fantasy owners at times, but at the end of the year he's usually got solid numbers in a bunch of categories: Jimmy Rollins, everybody.
Donovan: a good pick, clearly the third shortstop on everyone's list I think
Dave: yeah, there are a few sleepers who could pay off huge if you're taking them in the later rounds of a 10- or 12-team league (tulo, furcal, drew), but j-roll's the only one worthy of something this high
Donovan: speaking of streaky guys who put up good numbers in the end, I'm going with a sure thing at the hot corner with Aramis Ramirez
Donovan: plus, some days I can put him in left and Manny at third, and no one will know the difference
Dave: you now lead the league in Ramirezes, as well as players who kinda look like me
Donovan: both scoring categories in our two-team league
Dave: for sure
Donovan: one year I had two Zambranos, that was fun
Donovan: except that one of them stunk
Dave: well, since he's on the board still, we can't ignore him. even though he's heavy, lazy, and i always wonder when that's going to catch up with him. a first-round talent who i'd probably avoid until at least the second or third round of a conventional draft: Miguel Cabrera
Donovan: yeah, I don't know what to think about that guy. Everything I've seen has him as a top-6 or so overall guy, but if you had that pick would you take him over Braun or Sizemore?
Donovan: obviously we wouldn't
Dave: nope; and that's part of the point of this exercise
Donovan: I was wondering
Dave: i'd legitimately take every guy i've already taken, and most (if not all) of your guys before miggy
Dave: i think we can also agree, based on the first 16 picks, offense is a greater fantasy priority than pitching...
Dave: (for the newcomers in the house)
Donovan: yes. although I think that's more the case this year, since there's not a guaranteed lights-out starter
Donovan: a lot of people took Johan in the top 5 overall a few years back, if I recall
Dave: that's true
Donovan: but sticking with the theme of offense, I'll grab Carlos Beltran, who brings something to all five categories
Dave: i can't argue with that, at all, though i don't think i've ever drafted him; something just rubs me wrong
Donovan: his numbers always seem like they maybe should be higher, but across the board he's valuable
Dave: but after looking at my roster, i've decided it's time for pitching again: give me the hefty lefty (sorry, jared lorenzen): Carsten Charles Sabathia
Donovan: wow
Donovan: dark horse
Dave: guy has always been a horse
Dave: and always struck people out, with a good ERA
Donovan: guy's been two horses the last few years
Dave: now add wins to the equation
Dave: i've got him paired with webb as keepers in the aforementioned league
Donovan: you're set on pitching, then
Dave: amen, bro
Donovan: I'll play it safe again with pitching and take Roy Halladay
Donovan: who I have seemingly every year, but who's always welcome back
Donovan: if he played in new york or boston he'd have three cy youngs by now
Dave: agreed
Dave: and it's a nice choice
Dave: but i'll go with another young stud, instead
Dave: Cole Hamels
Dave: (and his wife)
Donovan: ha
Donovan: another guy whose workload I worry about
Dave: fair point, but i've got faith
Donovan: I think years of watching Prior and Wood has made me skittish about innings pitched
Dave: where'd you watch them? they broadcast simulated rehab games in chicago?
Donovan: for a few years there that was more interesting than the real thing
Donovan: speaking of guys that are always welcome on my team, Carlos Lee is my next pick
Donovan: reliable, powerful, hits for average
Donovan: surprisingly fast for a 300-pound left fielder
Dave: el caballo
Dave: and i'll follow him with el caballito
Dave: that's right
Dave: Dustin Pedroia over Ian Kinsler
Donovan: now there's a reach
Dave: i will never convince you, or the national media, of this — but last year was not a fluke
Donovan: we'll find out
Donovan: I'll probably hate myself for this, but I'm going with Jonathan Papelbon as closer number 1
Dave: wow
Dave: i was just going to ask: is there a clear, go get him early closer?
Dave: you must think papelbon is him
Donovan: if there is one, he's it
Donovan: I still think he's a douchebag though
Dave: ahh, well at least it doesn't cloud your vision
Donovan: I'm a businessman when I need to be
Dave: nor does the fact i think the exact same way about this guy as you do about papelbon
Dave: wait for it...
Dave: Alex Rodriguez
Donovan: stop
Donovan: the
Donovan: presses
Dave: i'll wait til may for that
Donovan: whoever ends up with A-Rod in the third or fourth round is getting a steal
Dave: 24th player taken — i'd say if you get him in the 3d round of a 10-team league, you're golden
Dave: but take him before then, you're making a huge risk
Donovan: agreed
Donovan: I'm going to fill the lone starting hole in my roster, and you can probably guess who that's going to be
Dave: geo
Donovan: reigning NL Rookie of the Year and all-star starter
Donovan: yes, it's Geovany Soto
Donovan: a pick from the heart, but I like the guy
Dave: hey, if your catcher can dh for a team in the wbc, he's a solid selection
Donovan: only loss is stolen bases compared to Martin, but that's not enough for me
Donovan: Geo, as you know, is my boy
Donovan: led me to an 11th-place finish last year, so I have to take him
Dave: can't ditch a guy after that
Dave: nor can i pass up Nick Markakis in this spot
Dave: guy is going to be really good this year
Dave: no more second-half hot streak, he'll be a wire-to-wire all-star
Donovan: Drew, give the keyboard back to Dave please
Dave: ha
Dave: i'd take him over hamilton, berkman, ichiro and crawford
Donovan: not much love for Josh Hamilton today
Dave: in his case he's still got to prove it to me
Dave: plus, his second half was pretty bad
Donovan: yeah, I can see him being a one-year wonder a la Pedroia
Dave: better than that zero-year wonder, kosuke fukudome
Donovan: ha
Donovan: moving on
Donovan: I'm going back to the mound in Phoenix for my next pick, Dan Haren
Donovan: Haren and Webb, top 1-2 combo in baseball, I'll take em both any day
Dave: nice choice with haren; i'd have stayed in that division, though, and gone elsewhere. to a guy who's going to be pitching for a ticket out of town (in a good way): the motivated Jake Peavy.
Donovan: nice pick
Donovan: he'll pick up plenty of wins after he's shipped to Wrigley
Dave: worth noting, i think, is that five of the seven starters have so far been NL guys — and four of those have been in the West
Dave: definitely a safer way to go, i think
Donovan: I agree
Donovan: the NL is the superior league now
Dave: not quite my point ...
Donovan: haha
Donovan: I'm going to fill a bech spot here with Justin Morneau
Donovan: good power, good RBI
Dave: good pick; i was considering it as well
Dave: but it was between he and this guy, who has been a first rounder the last five years, but is now a nice pick-up in the 3d or 4th — David Ortiz
Donovan: also a sentimental pick
Dave: only Utility-eligible hurts, too
Donovan: does he even own a glove?
Dave: yes; using it in the WBC, in fact
Dave: or, rather, USED it in the wbc
Donovan: guy couldn't beat the netherlands, how can he beat the yankees?
Donovan: they're dancing in the streets of Amsterdam
Dave: wasn't new york formerly new amsterdam? that's concerning
Donovan: ooh, I hadn't thought of that. the stars are aligned
Donovan: well since we have to take four relievers, I'll take the second closer on my board, Brad Lidge
Dave: dang
Dave: you just stole my pick
Dave: causing me to spill tuna on my keyboard
Dave: GREAT!
Donovan: wow
Donovan: I didn't think it was that great a pick
Donovan: wait, you're eating tuna now? thatta boy! fish of the gods
Dave: the reaction was more based on the fact i had to think about this again
Dave: i guess Joe Nathan isn't a bad consolation prize
Dave: and i've always been a tuna guy
Donovan: I was always telling you to eat tuna, and you always resisted
Dave: im as much a tuna guy as keith byers or curtis martin
Donovan: and Joe Nathan is a good guy, yes
Donovan: oy
Donovan: I just think Lidge will get more save opportunities
Dave: agreed
Dave: and there have been some minor (so far) health concerns with nathan this spring
Donovan: I'll start my bench off with Big Puma, Lance Berkman
Donovan: high power and average numbers, plays in a hitters park, I like him
Dave: good pick there
Dave: and i'm lacking steals, so i'm going to count on a bounce back year from Carl Crawford
Dave: another guy whose fantasy stock has slid drastically, despite his team getting much better
Donovan: he's tempting
Donovan: but like you said, he's been on a downhill slide for a while
Donovan: I'm going back to Beantown for Jason Bay
Dave: wow ... you love the red sox
Donovan: I've always loved the Red Sox
Donovan: I almost took Curt Schilling with that pick, actually
Dave: and i've always loved the yankees
Dave: that's why i'm going with Mariano Rivera
Donovan: is he ever going to age?
Dave: i hope so ... but he was better than papelbon in 08, so i'll take him as the 4th closer selected
Donovan: now I always like to be the first guy to discover someone-last year it was soto, the year before that was Fausto Carmona- and this year, although he's not a sleeper really, I like Chad Billingsley
Dave: i love that pick
Dave: he's going to be really good
Donovan: thank you, and again we're back in the NL West for pitching
Dave: so now we're at the 38th pick, which says a lot about how two-dimensional this guy is — particularly because he's been 1st, 5th, 2nd in MVP voting the last three years, and yet we're waiting til now
Dave: any guesses?
Donovan: Ryan Howard
Dave: you got it
Donovan: yeah, that .260 average and 1 stolen base don't do much
Dave: apparently, even with a 162-game average of 50 bombs, he's more valuable in real life than in fantasy
Donovan: someone's going to take him early, and I'll just sit back and grab Adam Dunn about 12 rounds later
Dave: i employ the same strategy as well
Donovan: not that I'm taking Dunn now
Dave: plus dunn is a way better obp guy
Donovan: he has moved to a less hitter-friendly park, but since all his homers are about 450 feet I don't think it'll matter too much
Donovan: I'm going to take a risk on my final starting slot and pick Johan Santana
Dave: again, you stole my pick
Donovan: I know he's got arm issues, but the payoff is big
Dave: it'll be real interesting to see where he goes in drafts — probably the later the draft, the earlier he goes
Dave: as long as he stays healthy between now and april
Donovan: yeah
Donovan: you could conceivably get him and A-Rod along with two early rounders and have a monster year
Dave: certainly
Dave: im going to go with a guy who has injury questions as well, but could likewise be a big payoff
Dave: that'd be the ace of the Red Sox
Dave: Josh Beckett
Donovan: he's currently doing time for killing my season last year
Dave: first-rounder last year for you?
Donovan: he was supposed to be my staff ace last year
Donovan: I definitely didn't take him in the first round, but he was a disappointment
Dave: yeah - as the 10th starter taken, he could be a good bargain
Donovan: I'm taking Evan Longoria here
Donovan: I expect a slight drop as people adjust to him, but not much
Dave: nice selection; he'll go a lot higher in most drafts
Dave: he was good in the playoffs, too
Donovan: those of us who took him last year and were patient got a good payoff
Dave: yes we did
Dave: so as to avoid a joakim soria scenario, i'll go with Francisco Rodriguez here to round out my bullpen
Donovan: and I'll follow with my sleeper closer, Carlos Marmol
Dave: you didn't want to follow Kid K to Cleveland?
Donovan: I considered it
Donovan: by my sentamentality has its limits
Dave: mine doesn't
Dave: that's why i'm taking a guy i've loved since he was a rookie:
Donovan: Mike Timlin?
Dave: (ha. no.)
Dave: Larry "Chipper" Jones
Dave: NL batting champ last year
Donovan: good selection at this point
Donovan: not worried about injuries?
Dave: of course i am
Dave: but if you can surround him with some depth, he's a very good fantasy player
Donovan: you've got two ?s at third
Donovan: well, I guess you have Wright
Donovan: never mind
Donovan: I guess Josh Hamilton has waited in the green room long enough
Dave: hopefully he had brady quinn's girlfriend to keep him company
Donovan: ha
Dave: or at least that dude who follows him everywhere to keep him straight
Dave: it's been a while
Donovan: I do have a problem with his whole story
Donovan: like, what about the guys who didn't try to throw away their lives, but that aren't good at baseball?
Donovan: where's our parade?
Dave: with two picks to go, i need depth up the middle so i'm going to go withMr. Ian Kinsler
Donovan: I don;'t know if he'll play for you after you dissed him earlier
Dave: he's not pedroia, but not a bad consolation prize
Donovan: for my final pick, I'll head down I-95 a ways and pick up Brian Roberts
Dave: not a bad choice
Donovan: not as high on him as I once was, but he's at a thin position
Dave: me, i need a catcher — and even with mccann, martin and v-mart on the board, you can give me a lift to baltimore
Dave: Matt Wieters
Donovan: wow
Donovan: fitting of the final pick
Dave: everything i've read says the guy is going to be a machine right off the bat
Dave: we shall see

THE FINAL ROSTERS
(overall pick number in parentheses)

TEAM BURBA POS TEAM D'ONOFRIO
Geovany Soto (25)  C Matt Wieters (48)
Mark Teixeira (9)  1B Albert Pujols (2)
Chase Utley (7)  2B Dustin Pedroia (22)
Hanley Ramirez (1)  SS Jimmy Rollins (14)
Aramis Ramirez (15)  3B David Wright (4)
Justin Morneau (29)  IF Miguel Cabrera (16)
Ryan Braun (5)  OF Grady Sizemore (6)
Manny Ramirez (13)  OF B.J. Upton (10)
Carlos Beltran (17)  OF Alfonso Soriano (12)
Carlos Lee (21) OF Nick Markakis (26)
Jose Reyes (3)  UTIL David Ortiz (30)
Brandon Webb (11)  SP Tim Lincecum (8)
Roy Halladay (19)  SP C.C. Sabathia (18)
Dan Haren (27)  SP Cole Hamels (20)
Chad Billingsley (37)  SP Jake Peavy (28)
Johan Santana (39)  SP Josh Beckett (40)
Jonathan Papelbon (23)  RP Joe Nathan (32)
Brad Lidge (31)  RP Mariano Rivera (36)
Carlos Marmol (43)  RP Francisco Rodriguez (42)
Jason Bay (35)  BENCH Alex Rodriguez (24)
Evan Longoria (41)  BENCH Carl Crawford (34)
Josh Hamilton (45)  BENCH Ryan Howard (38)
Lance Berkman (33)  BENCH Chipper Jones (44)
Brian Roberts (47)  BENCH Ian Kinsler (46)

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