Take your pick

Posted by Dave at Sunday, February 17, 2008 12:44 AM
Categories: Dave does Florida,NASCAR,National sports scene

Race day has finally arrived here in the world center of racing, meaning SpeedWeeks are nearly over and it's time to fire up the engines for another NASCAR season.

And, at least on the surface, it doesn't seem as though it'll be anything like the last NASCAR season. The Nextel Cup is now the Sprint Cup. The Busch Series is now sponsored by Nationwide. The Car of Tomorrow has now become the car of today. Joe Gibbs Racing now runs Toyotas instead of Chevys. And, of course, Dale Earnhardt Jr. has added an eight, traded beer for an energy buzz, and now races for Hendrick Motorsports.

And naturally, with so many fresh starts, optimism is as bountiful in the Daytona garages as beer is on the speedway's infield. Normally, race car drivers are quietly understated in their confidence. If they think they've got a contender, they'll tell everyone they think they have a car that can run up front. Or even that's capable of a top five.

This weekend, though, they've been unabashed. Mark Martin said he has a car that can win the damn thing. So did Carl Edwards. And so did several others. They each honestly believe they've got a shot to win the Super Bowl of stock car racing, lift themselves into the exclusive fraternity that includes eternal membership, and spark their season by getting a jumpstart on the rest.

Only one, though, will be able to do it. And, likewise, at the end of the year only will be able to hoist the hardware at Homestead-Miami. Who will those lucky people be? Let's peek ahead and offer our predictions.

DAYTONA 500

As Earnhardt said earlier in the week, winning the 500 is "pot luck." And to a degree he's right. Given the unpredictability of restricter-plate racing, and the power of finding a draft partner, a visit to Victory Lane might be more reflective of being in the right place at the right time than having the best car.

Nonetheless, you need a good car to get to that point. So here's a list of the eight who I believe are most likely to be in that lead pack when today's battle gets real interesting over the last 30 laps or so:

Kyle Busch, No. 18, Joe Gibbs Racing — As much as Junior owned the early portion of this week, the Shrub has owned the weekend. He's hot, he's confident, and he's got Toyota's heavy horsepower under the hood.
Dale Earnhardt Jr., No. 88, Hendrick Motorsports — The sport's most likable character just flat-out knows how to negotiate this tri-oval. Barring a wreck there's no way he's not a factor late.
Jeff Gordon, No. 24, Hendrick Motorsports — With all the hype surrounding Earnhardt's arrival and Johnson's run at a third straight title, Gordon has been a forgotten man this week. He'll be hard to ignore today.
Kevin Harvick, No. 29, Richard Childress Racing — Happy's biggest strength might be an ability to stick around until the end of a race — and that's how Daytona races are won. Just ask him; he did it last year.
Jimmie Johnson, No. 48, Hendrick Motorsports — The champ hasn't been stellar since laying down the fastest lap in qualifying, but with Chad Knaus on the box all that HMS info will be put to optimal use.
Ryan Newman, No. 12, Penske Racing — Call me a sucker, because five years worth of faith in Newman has rarely gone rewarded. But he usually has a good car here, and if he can stay out of trouble he'll do well. I think.
Reed Sorenson, No. 41, Ganassi Racing — The kid has been flying around the track all week. Plus, I wrote this story about him, and would love to look smart.
Tony Stewart, No. 20, Joe Gibbs Racing — He's been a cynical, sarcastic wisecracker all week, and I'm not sure what it means for his prospects. But I do know he's got a hell of a car, and that will help them most.

And the winner is ...

KYLE BUSCH
You just simply can't bet against Gibbs at this point, so for me the choice was between Busch, Stewart and Denny Hamlin — who's also got a realistic shot and won a Duel race on Thursday. Any would be a worthy choice and an unsurprising champion, but I went with Busch because he's been able to put his vehicle wherever it needed to be this weekend, and in a race that could come down to tire wear and handling, that could be the make-or-break skill. Plus, the brash Busch brothers love rattling cages, and on a week that started with Hendrick grabbing every headline, Gibbs's newest asset would like nothing better than to end the hoopla by sticking it to the team that let him leave.

CHASE FOR THE SPRINT CUP

Way back in November, some 91 days ago, I broke out the crystal ball and took a look to see who would be chasing a championship in 2008. At that point, Toyota hadn't shown signs of turning itself around, or what rules changes might be forthcoming, but I picked the dirty dozen anyway.

And even after seeing these cars and forming opinions from up close and personal, I'm sticking with my original picks. Here they are (with where they wound up 2007, how the national NASCAR media expects they'll do this year, and what Vegas says of their title chances) in descending order of expected finish:

12 — CLINT BOWYER
Last year's finish: 3rd
Media prediction:11th
Odds of a title: 25 to 1

11 — MATT KENSETH
Last year's finish: 4th
Media prediction: 5th
Odds of a title: 8 to 1

10 — JUAN PABLO MONTOYA
Last year's finish: 20th
Media prediction: Not ranked
Odds of a title: 75 to 1

9 — CASEY MEARS
Last year's finish: 15th
Media prediction: Not ranked
Odds of a title: 60 to 1

8 — KEVIN HARVICK
Last year's finish: 10th
Media prediction: 9th
Odds of a title: 30 to 1

7 — CARL EDWARDS
Last year's finish: 9th
Media prediction: 7th
Odds of a title: 8 to 1

6 — DENNY HAMLIN
Last year's finish: 12th
Media prediction: 10th
Odds of a title: 12 to 1

5 — DALE EARNHARDT JR.
Last year's finish: 16th
Media prediction: 4th
Odds of a title: 3 to 1

4 — TONY STEWART
Last year's finish: 6th
Media prediction: 3rd
Odds of a title: 8 to 1

3 — JIMMIE JOHNSON
Last year's finish: 1st
Media prediction: 2nd
Odds of a title: 4 to 1 

2 — KYLE BUSCH
Last year's finish: 5th
Media prediction: 6th
Odds of a title: 15 to 1


2008 SPRINT CUP CHAMPION

1 - JEFF GORDON
Last year's finish: 2nd; Media prediction: 1st; Odds of a title: 9 to 2
The Drive for Five is alive as of this afternoon.


OTHER PREDICTIONS
With the faith Penske Racing has placed in his abilities, Sam Hornish Jr. will be crowned rookie of the year. ... Toyota will reach Victory Lane for the first time today, and finish the year with more victories than Dodge and Ford combined. ... Jacques Villenueve will not return to a Cup car this season. ... Danica Patrick-to-NASCAR rumors will resurface by the time stock cars return to Daytona in July. ... Clint Bowyer wins the Nationwide title, while Todd Bodine takes the truck crown. ... Junior's first Hendrick win comes at Talladega's first race. ... Dale Jarrett's retirement paves the way for David Reutimann's breakout season. ... And Hamlin will sweep the season's two races at NHMS.

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